Key Insights from the GECF Global Gas Outlook 2055 (10th Edition)
The 10th edition of the GECF Global Gas Outlook 2055 highlights the expanding scale and increasing complexity of the global energy system, shaped by demographic growth, economic development, urbanisation, and accelerating electrification. In this context, natural gas is expected to strengthen its role as a pillar of energy security, system resilience, and sustainable development, supported by robust structural drivers and growing global demand.
• Global energy demand continues to expand materially, with primary energy demand projected to rise from 641 EJ in 2024 to 768 EJ by 2055, reflecting sustained growth in population, economic activity, and energy services.
• Electricity becomes the defining growth vector of the future energy system, with global electricity demand expected to more than double from around 30,800 TWh in 2024 to over 61,000 TWh by 2055, reinforcing the need for reliable, flexible, and dispatchable supply.
• Hydrocarbons remain central to the global energy mix, supplying around 62% of primary energy demand by 2055, underscoring their continued importance for affordability, reliability, and energy security.
• Natural gas demand demonstrates strong long-term growth, increasing from 4,137 bcm in 2024 to around 5,417 bcm by 2055, confirming its expanding role in the future energy system.
• Natural gas strengthens its position in the global energy mix, with its share rising from 23% in 2024 to 26% in 2055, overtaking coal and moving closer to oil as one of the leading pillars of global energy supply.
• Power generation is the main engine of natural gas demand growth, with gas demand in the power sector projected to reach around 2,100 bcm by 2055, highlighting its critical role in grid stability, flexibility, and the integration of renewable energy.
• Future gas supply growth becomes increasingly dependent on investment continuity and project execution, with global production projected to rise from 4,136 bcm in 2024 to around 5,417 bcm by 2055, led increasingly by the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa.
• Global gas trade becomes more interconnected and more LNG-driven, expanding from 1,211 bcm in 2024 to around 1,767 bcm by 2055, while LNG volumes are expected to double from 406 Mt to 837 Mt, accounting for around 65% of international gas trade by mid-century.
• GECF Member Countries reinforce their strategic importance in global gas markets, with their share of global production projected to rise from 38% in 2024 to 44% by 2055, while their contribution to international gas and LNG trade approaches one-half of global volumes.
• The Sustainable Energy Scenario confirms the enduring role of natural gas even in a more accelerated transition pathway, with global gas demand reaching around 6,127 bcm by 2055, supported by rising demand in power and industry and enabled by rapid scale-up of CCUS to around 8.9 GtCO₂e.