Key messages from the 10th edition of Global Gas Outlook 2055
The global energy system is becoming more electrified, more interconnected, and more demanding in terms of reliability, flexibility, and resilience, with electricity’s share in final energy demand rising from 22% in 2024 to 32% by 2055
In this evolving system, natural gas strengthens its role, with global demand projected to rise from 4,137 bcm in 2024 to 5,417 bcm by 2055, while its share in the global energy mix increases from 23% to 26%
The power sector is the main engine of natural gas demand growth, accounting for more than half of total incremental demand, as gas increasingly provides balancing, flexibility, and firm capacity in power systems with growing shares of variable renewables.
The centre of gravity of natural gas demand is shifting toward developing Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa, with Asia Pacific alone accounting for 43% of global net demand growth by 2055.
On the supply side, the world is moving from shale-led expansion toward conventional growth, led by the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa, making supply adequacy increasingly dependent on decline replacement, execution discipline, and timely project delivery.
By 2055, 86% of global gas production is expected to come from fields not producing today, highlighting that future gas security will depend on continued exploration, new project development, and successful conversion of resources into supply.
GECF Member Countries are set to strengthen their strategic role, with their share of global natural gas production rising from 38% in 2024 to 44% in 2055, and their contribution accounting for 65% of global net production growth.
Global gas markets are becoming more trade-dependent and LNG-centred, with total gas trade projected to rise from 1,211 bcm to 1,767 bcm, and LNG’s share in traded gas increasing from 46% to 65% by 2055.
Asia Pacific emerges as the anchor of global gas and LNG trade, while North America, the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa become the principal sources of additional LNG supply.
Future expansion of export capacity will be increasingly LNG-driven, with current GECF Member Countries projected to account for 53% of global LNG exports by 2055, while nearly three-quarters of their additional gas exports will come from LNG.
A timely conversion of today’s pre-FID LNG project portfolio into sanctioned capacity will be essential to maintain sufficient liquefaction availability and avoid structural tightening in global LNG supply after 2040.
Meeting future gas demand will require very large capital deployment, with USD 11.6 trillion in upstream investment and around USD 735 billion in midstream investment needed by 2055.
The Sustainable Energy Scenario shows that accelerated development and deeper decarbonisation can advance together, but only through a larger energy system that combines electrification, firm capacity, and large-scale carbon management. In this scenario, natural gas demand rises further to 6,127 bcm, and CCUS scales up to 8.9 GtCO₂e by 2055.
The message of this Outlook is clear. The future energy system will be more electrified, more interconnected, and more demanding in terms of reliability, flexibility, and resilience. Natural gas is not just a bridge to the future. It is an integral part of the future itself.