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GECF Expert Commentary: Viability of LNG Trade Growth under the EU-US Trade Deal

GECF Expert Commentary: Viability of LNG Trade Growth under the EU-US Trade Deal

21 August 2025 |

The 27 July 2025 EU–US trade deal, framed as the outcome of negotiations following the announcement of new US tariffs on 2 April 2025, commits the EU to import $750 billion of US energy by 2028 ($250 billion annually), with LNG expected to anchor this expansion. Yet the targets are widely seen as unrealistic: US uncontracted LNG capacity is limited and contested by Asian buyers, while EU gas demand is structurally declining, much of its imports is already locked in long-term contracts, and infrastructure bottlenecks persist. Moreover, the EU’s climate policies conflict with deeper fossil fuel dependence. As commercial decisions rest with private firms, the agreement is more likely to function as a political symbol of transatlantic solidarity than a catalyst for major LNG trade growth, resembling the unmet energy targets of the 2019 US–China trade deal.

Attachments

  1. gmad---expert-commentary_viability-of-lng-trade-growth-under-the-eu-us-trade-deal.pdf 8/24/2025 11:59:32 AM