As the world confronts the challenge of feeding a burgeoning global population, the role of natural gas in enhancing food security becomes increasingly crucial. The situation is projected to become more acute as the global population is expected to reach around 9.7 billion by 2050 and living standards to improve, significantly increasing the demand for food. In this context, natural gas, given its role in the production of fertilizers, plays a pivotal role in addressing the challenge of global hunger.
The UN Sustainable Development Goal #2 aims to create a world free of hunger by 2030. However, current estimations of undernourishment suggest that the world is significantly off track in achieving this goal of zero hunger. The 2023 edition of the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations underlines a consistent rise in the number of people suffering from undernourishment. On the global level, hunger levels have soared particularly within the recent half-decade. By 2022, there are an estimated 735 million persons worldwide afflicted by hunger, or 9.2% of the global population (Figure 1). The hunger crisis is most severe in sub-Saharan Africa, where 22.5% of the population is undernourished, but challenges also abound in parts of western Asia and in the Caribbean.
Figure 1: Global hunger and undernourishment level
Source: GECF Secretariat based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Fertilizers play a central role in modern agriculture, contributing significantly to increased crop yields and overall food production. Based on various estimates, fertilizers contribute to 50% of global food production. The absence of fertilizers would likely lead to a drastic reduction in food availability, thereby intensifying the existing hunger crisis.
The production of fertilizers heavily depends on natural gas. It is the primary feedstock for the synthesis of ammonia, which is a key component of nitrogen-based fertilizers. The Haber-Bosch process, which combines nitrogen from the air with hydrogen derived from natural gas, is responsible for producing over 70% of the world's ammonia production, the rest being through coal-gasification.
The impact of natural gas-driven fertilizers on food security is substantial. Crop yields, particularly for staples like wheat and rice, have increased significantly in recent decades due to the application of nitrogen fertilizers. This increase is critical, especially in countries with rapidly growing populations and limited arable land. Enhanced crop yields directly contribute to improved food availability and accessibility, playing a crucial role in mitigating global hunger. According to the World Bank, global fertilizer nutrient consumption has been multiplied by a factor of four since 1960 and will keep its uptrend in upcoming years (Figure 2). Moreover, the International Fertiliser Association (IFA) predicts an increase in global fertiliser consumption in the short to medium term, by 2% y-o-y in 2024, and averaging around 1.6% y-o-y in the subsequent three years [1].
Figure 2: Global fertilizer consumption
Source: GECF Secretariat based on data from the World Bank DataBank [2]
Conversely, global fertiliser production continues to be hampered by a myriad of risks, including worldwide climate, the global economic situation, geopolitical events, and logistical constraints. Nevertheless, the IFA remains optimistic on the supply of fertilisers in the short term, driven by investment in fertiliser capacity in regions, which have access to low-cost natural gas.
The role of natural gas in global food security extends beyond fertilizer production. It is also used in various aspects of the agricultural and food processing sectors. For example, natural gas is employed for heating, essential for growing crops in controlled environments. Additionally, natural gas is utilized in food processing industries for cooking and heating, where consistent and controlled thermal energy is required.
The refrigeration and cold storage of food products also rely on energy, where natural gas plays a key role. The use of natural gas-sourced energy in refrigeration systems ensures that perishable products are stored and transported at safe temperatures, thus reducing food spoilage and waste. This is particularly important in managing the global food supply chain, ensuring that food produced in one part of the world can be safely and efficiently transported to another where it is needed.
The use of natural gas in agriculture also has broader economic implications. By enhancing agricultural productivity, natural gas contributes to the economic well-being of farmers and rural communities. This, in turn, has a positive impact on local and national economies, driving economic growth and development.
Furthermore, the availability of natural gas-driven fertilizers has implications for international trade in agricultural products. Countries that have access to natural gas resources have a competitive advantage in agricultural production. This can lead to increased exports of agricultural products, contributing to global food availability and trade.
Looking ahead, the role of natural gas in agriculture and food security is likely to evolve with technological advancements and changing market dynamics. Innovations in fertilizer production, more efficient use of natural gas, and the development of new agricultural technologies are expected to further enhance the role of natural gas in supporting global food security.
In conclusion, natural gas is a cornerstone of global food security, playing a critical role in the production of fertilizers and supporting various aspects of the agricultural and food processing sectors. Its contribution to enhancing crop yields, improving food availability, and supporting economic development is significant. In this context, the stability of natural gas markets is also interlinked with global food security. It is imperative that there continues to be investment in natural gas production, downstream industries such as fertilisers, and in strengthening logistical value chains, to ensure that these important commodities are available, accessible, and affordable. As the world faces the challenge of feeding a growing population, the sustainable and efficient use of natural gas will remain a key factor in ensuring global food security.