Member Corner
The COP31 Presidency has proposed that electricity should account for 35% of world final energy consumption by 2035, up from about 24% today. The proposal is often presented as a step that will steadily reduce the use of fossil fuels. This commentary argues that, for natural gas, the opposite is true over the period the target covers: meeting 35-by-35 would increase world gas demand, and the target is unlikely to be achieved unless this is recognised in its design. The analysis is based on a normative scenario built with the GECF Global Gas Model (HE2026), which imposes the 35% share in 2035 and asks what reaching it would require, compared with the GECF Reference Case Scenario (RCS), in which the share reaches 29.4%.
Read the full expert commentary: Expert Commentary: Electrification to 35% by 2035: Implications of the COP31 Goal for Natural Gas Demand