Member Corner
By: Dmitrii Gordeev, Energy Econometrician
Executive Summary
Marine LNG is shifting from a niche, largely captive gas outlet to a growing and increasingly price-sensitive source of demand. In the GECF Reference Case Scenario (RCS), marine LNG consumption more than doubles from nearly 19 bcm in 2025 to around 45 bcm by 2035. Bunkering is the main growth engine, rising from 6 bcm to about 22 bcm and accounting for nearly two-thirds of the increase. Because most of this growth comes from dual-fuel vessels, around half of marine LNG demand is expected to be price-responsive by 2035. These vessels choose between LNG and oil-based fuels mainly on relative delivered prices, although environmental considerations also play a role, including emissions compliance and the carbon-footprint commitments of shipowners and charterers. Growth will therefore depend as much on fuel competitiveness (shaped by subsidies and carbon pricing) and bunkering availability at ports as on fleet expansion.
Regulation and economics both support this trajectory. FuelEU Maritime and the EU ETS already apply to shipping, while the IMO Net-Zero Framework remains under negotiation. LNG offers an indicative 20–25% reduction in CO₂ emissions compared with conventional marine fuels, substantially lower sulphur oxide and particulate emissions, and a pathway to bio-LNG and synthetic methane using the same engines and infrastructure. The Middle East conflict has increased supply uncertainty, but it has also disrupted oil supplies: under a Strait of Hormuz closure scenario, LNG remains the most cost-competitive of the main marine fuels.
Read the full article here: Marine transport: the new growth frontier for LNG demand?