The Gas Exporting Countries Forum launched its Global Gas Outlook 2040 on Tuesday 17th of January 2017 at the headquarters of the Forum in Doha, Qatar. His Excellency Dr. Seyed Mohammad Hossein Adeli, GECF Secretary General presented the GECF Outlook 2040 in a special Extraordinary GECF monthly gas lecture.
The GECF Global Gas Outlook is unique. It is the only energy outlook worldwide to focus solely on natural gas; as such it aims to be a global reference for insights on gas markets. The document offers a neutral view on gas market evolution by describing and assessing the developments that are most likely to occur in the medium and the long-term. To this end, it presents the GECF reference case scenario which has been developed based on certain strategic scenario axes i.e. (security of gas demand and gas supply as well as energy prices)
During the panelist discussions, comprising of Dr. Adeli, Ms. Mahdjouba Belaifa, Head of Gas Market Analysis Department and Mr. Dmitry Sokolov Energy Economics & Forecasting Department, the Secretary General and panelist gave an overview of the GECF Outlook 2040 and its perspectives.
The Outlook also projects that global demand for gas will be around 5,200 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2040. This compares with demand of about 3,500 bcm in 2015. In other words, demand is likely to increase by about 50% in 25 years, a similar growth to that experienced over the past 16 years.
The gas share in the global energy mix is to increase by 2.8% per annum and will constitute around 40 -45 % of total gas trade. Liquefaction capacity will increase by 40%. Fossil fuel will be dominant in the next 25 years by forming 75% of global energy mix. Gas is going to benefit from international environmental agreements.
Despite the fact that in the GECF Outlook gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel, and renewables are growing strongly, it is still not enough to keep the climate pathway in line with scientific recommendations, and existing political agreements, to limit the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere to around 450 parts per million. This indicates that more penetration of gas and renewables is required to control total carbon dioxide emissions sufficiently and meet climate protection targets.
It also sees gas trade increasing by 60% over the period, from about 1,000 bcm in 2015 to almost 1,700 bcm in 2040, and even more of this trade will be carried by sea, in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which will grow annually by 2.8% on average in the long term.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is an international, governmental organization which provides the framework for exchanging experience and information among Member Countries. The Forum is a gathering of the world’s leading gas producers and was set up as an international governmental organization with the objective to increase the level of coordination and strengthen the collaboration among Member Countries.
The launch was attended by Ambassadors, members of the diplomatic corps, academic, international oil and gas company executives, businesses as well as senior experts and analysts from the gas and energy sector.