GECF Global Gas Outlook 2040
In an era characterized by energy transitions, it has never been as critical to understand the key drivers shaping the future of global energy. The GECF Global Gas Outlook (GGO) provides modelled long-term energy projections, based on assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, energy prices, and current energy policies.
The GECF GGO is one of the Forum’s annual flagship publications. It is unique, as it is the only energy outlook worldwide to focus solely on natural gas. The GGO aims to be a global reference for insights into gas markets and offers an impartial view on gas market evolution by emphasizing the most likely developments that are going to occur over the 2040 forecast horizon.
The 2018 Edition of the GECF GGO features two alternative scenarios. The Carbon Mitigation Scenario (CMS) takes into account the potential introduction of new energy policies that are likely to materialize as a result of national climate commitments and carbon mitigation measures. The Technology Advancement Scenario (TAS) builds upon the assumptions made in the CMS to model the long-term effects that technological progress and innovation have on global and regional energy markets, as well as the potential implications for gas demand. The inclusion of the CMS and TAS in the 2018 GGO has been undertaken in accordance with the GECF Long-Term Strategy, and underscores one of the Forum’s key strengths: the development of extensive and impartial energy forecasts that best represent long-term gas market dynamics.
The GGO is quantified through the use of the GECF Global Gas Model – a unique and highly granular energy model developed at the GECF Secretariat – which includes various sub-models that each focus on one segment of the gas value chain.
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