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GECF Global Gas Model


The GECF Global Gas Model (GGM) is a unique long-term energy forecasting model developed in house at the GECF Secretariat. The GGM represents the most comprehensive and granular view of natural gas markets available. The GECF Secretariat undertook intensive four-year efforts to develop the GGM as an open source model; it is now the primary long-term forecasting tool approved by the GECF governing bodies. 

The GGM is capable of producing comprehensive energy balance forecasts for 136 countries with over 85 regional and economic aggregations, spanning 35 fuels and 37 sectors, through to 2050. Energy and natural gas demand forecasts are derived from a set of scenario assumptions, based on about 500 indicators that represent macroeconomic and energy price data. The GGM is a hybrid model that utilizes econometric and linear programming techniques using time series dating back to 1990. Policy measures and technology developments are taken into consideration at each stage of the modelling process. 

One unique feature of the GGM is the granularity and scope of natural gas market forecasts it is capable of producing. For data on gas supply and trade, the modelling team uses an in-house database updated by GECF Countries and supplemented with secondary sources. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive database available, with over 4000 gas supply entities representing gas supply potential at a global scale. 

The core engine of the GECF GGM is the Global Gas Trade Model, which matches gas supply and demand curves for all modeled countries and solves for global gas prices and trade flows. Gas exports are forecasted over the infrastructure network, which spans 637 liquefaction plants, 813 re-gasification plants, and more than 4500 gas pipeline and shipping routes. Data on annual contracted and delivered volumes is based on more than 700 country-to-country and non-dedicated contracts.

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