GECF Global Gas Model
The development of the GECF Global Gas Model (GGM) started in March 2011 based on a phased approach over four years, from a highly aggregated geographical regions and complex set of energy and gas modules in Phase 1 which map the gas value chain and provide global gas demand-supply coverage, to more detailed drill-downs and breakdown of regions into individual countries during phases 2-4, as well as improving and adding more functionalities to the Model interface during the final phases of development.
In 2014 - 2015, a concentrated effort was made by the GECF Secretariat to complete the GECF Global Gas Model. Accordingly, the Secretariat successfully accomplished the last phase of development of the GECF GGM project, providing detailed disaggregation of 113 regions and countries in terms of gas supply and demand.
The Model was built around a series of modules that can be solved independently and when combined together constitute the complete Model. The Model consist of, but is not limited to: an economic sub-model, various energy demand sub-models dedicated to each sector of the economy, an energy price sub-model to determine the end users price of energy fuels, gas supply modules (upstream, pipelines, LNG, …), as well as gas trade optimization module which is the core unit of the Model.
Furthermore, the GECF Secretariat undertook intensive efforts by developing, testing and calibrating the different scenarios to be adopted by the GECF. Therefore a base case scenario and alternatives scenarios were developed in-house according to strategic fundamental axes and key internal external challenges already approved by the GECF Governing bodies, which were then presented several times to representatives from member countries during expert technical meetings.
In 2015, an expert meeting represented by the Technical Economic Council was held to review the updates imposed in the first half of 2015 on the reference case scenario, as well as review the guidelines on the alternative scenarios.
The GECF GGM is a specialized, energy/gas forecasting tool that reflects the dynamic changes taking place in the in gas markets at a specific time horizon. It can stimulate the impact of expected/potential/virtual changes on the global gas chain, it is a perfect tool for tackling the What-If questions related to future gas markets, and also enables a better understanding of key uncertainties and outlook on the medium and long term supply and demand of gas.
The GGM is currently fully operational and allows for in-depth analysis of the regional and global gas markets. The main features are:
- Mapping the gas upstream supply by type and cost, from existing fields under operation and new projects under development or appraisal, to ultimate resources whether conventional or unconventional.
- Main gas route networks and corridors.
- Mapping the LNG plants whether existing, under development, announced or required by the market.
- An energy demand forecasting tool which is a complex set of modules stimulating all the economic sectors and their needs in terms of energy and the different competing fuels.
- World gas trade generator, an integrating module, which gives an idea on the long term trends of gas market export/import routes based on historical figures, contractual flows, cost curves and other constraints influencing world gas markets.