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GECF Global Gas Model


The GECF Global Gas Model (GGM) is a unique long-term energy forecasting model developed in house at the GECF Secretariat. The GGM represents the most comprehensive and granular view of natural gas markets available. The GECF Secretariat undertook intensive four-year efforts to develop the GGM as an open source model; it is now the primary long-term forecasting tool approved by the GECF governing bodies. 

The GGM is capable of producing comprehensive energy balance forecasts for 113 countries and 60 regions, spanning 34 fuels over 29 sectors, through to 2050. Energy and natural gas demand forecasts are derived from a set of scenario assumptions, based on 100 indicators that represent macroeconomic and energy price data. The GGM is a hybrid model that utilizes econometric and linear programming techniques using time-series dating back to 1990. Policy measures are taken into consideration at each stage of the modelling process. 

One unique feature of the GGM is the granularity and scope of natural gas market forecasts it is capable of producing. For data on gas supply and trade, the modelling team uses an in-house database updated by GECF Countries and supplemented with secondary sources. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive database available, featuring over 4300 gas supply entities and including 2120 new gas projects based on existing and unconventional reserves. 

The core engine of the GECF GGM is the Global Gas Trade Model, which matches gas supply and demand curves for all modelled countries and solves for global gas prices and trade flows. Gas exports are forecasted over the infrastructure network, which spans 240 liquefaction plants, 400 regasification plants, and more than 5000 gas pipeline and shipping routes. Data on annual contracted and delivered volumes is based on more than 1000 company-to-company contracts.

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