بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

السيد الأمين العام لوزارة الطاقة والمناجم،

السيد الأمين العام لوزارة البيئة والطاقات المتجددة،

السيد والي ولاية وهران،

السيد رئيس شركة سوناطراك ورئيس الجمعية الجزائرية للغاز،

السيد رئيس شركة سونلغاز،

السيدات والسادة المحترمون،

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله تعالى وبركاته أما بعد،

يسعدني ويشرفني أن أعود إلى بلدي الحبيب لحضور الندوة السابعة لجمعية الغاز الجزائرية في مدينة وهران الجميلة.

في البداية، أود أن أشيد بالرجل العظيم، الراحل عبد الحق بوحفص، الرئيس السابق لسوناطراك ومؤسس الجمعية الجزائرية للغاز. لقد كان قائدًا حقيقيا ونموذجًا للكفاءة، والتفاني، والنزاهة. كما لدي ذاكرة حية للندوة الأولى التي نظمها السيد بوحفص في ديسمبر من عام 1997، حيث دعاني لإلقاء كلمة حول تطورات سوق غاز البترول المسال وتوقعاته، فهو موضوع في غاية الأهمية آنذاك، حيث كانت سوناطراك على وشك مضاعفة صادراتها من غاز البترول المسال بأكثر من ثلاث مرات.

أود أيضًا أن أشيد بالراحل نزيم زويوش، الرئيس السابق لشركة سوناطراك والرئيس السابق لهذه الجمعية، وهو أحد أكثر الخبراء دراية بصناعة البترول والغاز، فهو الرائد الذي يعود له الفضل في الحفاظ على إنتاج حاسي مسعود أثناء تأميمات عام 1971. فعلا لقد كان مديرًا ملهمًا ومؤطرا فذا في نفس الوقت.

كما لايسعني إلا أن أدعو المولى عز وجل أن يرحمهم جميعا و يغفر لهم و يسكنهم فسيح جناته.

Ladies and gentlemen,

I would like to congratulate the organisers for selecting the theme of the role of natural gas in the energy transition. This is a timely and important theme indeed.

However, before delving into the subject, I would like to make three preliminary observations.

The first is that there is no energy transition, but energy transitions, in plural. The energy transitions in Southeast Asia or Africa cannot be the same as in Europe or North America. Evolving from the use of charcoal or dung to using LPG for cooking is a great energy transition in India and Africa, that helps mitigate indoor pollution, reduce deforestation, and free time for school and economic activities, notably for women and children. I am sure that many of you have lived this type of transition, as my family did, using kerosene for cooking under the colonial time, then LPG just after the independence, and then natural gas from the seventies.

Transitioning from natural gas to hydrogen is possible in rich countries that already enjoy a high position in the energy ladder.

Hence, it is clear that national circumstances, capabilities and priorities determine the energy transition pathways.

My second observation is about the pace and nature of transitions. Humanity has gone through many transitions, be they in agriculture, health, manufacturing, or energy. These transitions were in general protracted and were only successful because they improved the well-being of people and their affluence. So, transitions are just that: multifaceted and lengthy processes, not an on/off switch.

Finally, I believe a discussion on energy transitions is more fruitful if it takes into account the over-arching framework of sustainable development, with its three intertwined and mutually supportive pillars of economic growth, social progress, and environmental protection.

Energy is crucial for economic growth and social progress. None of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals can be reached without energy. It is also worthy to underline in this context the two cardinal principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and that socioeconomic development and poverty eradication are the overriding priorities of developing country Parties.

Ladies and gentlemen,

The global energy system has been on a roller coaster in the last three years and energy markets are experiencing drastic transformations in ways that deeply affect physical flows, investment, trade, and market functioning.

In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic was a deep stress test of the resiliency of energy systems, in terms of business continuity, infrastructure, human resources, and financial viability.

2021 witnessed the adverse impacts of chronic underinvestment since 2014, as supply couldn’t keep up with rising energy demand in the context of post-pandemic recovery, leading to a sharp increase in energy prices in the second half of the year.

In 2022, geopolitical developments prompted policymakers to place energy security back at the top of their priorities list. Economic prospects became gloomy in the face of rising inflation, tight financial conditions, disrupted supply chains, and expanded economic restrictions. As prices increased, Europe evolved from being a market of last resort for LNG to become the preferred destination. This made it difficult for some developing countries to attract LNG cargoes, leading to blackouts and worsening living conditions in these nations.

This year, a warmer-than-usual winter and lower LNG demand in China helped avoid a deep energy crisis. Today, gas storage is at record level in Europe, market tightness has eased and prices have softened. However, the prospects remain uncertain as less than 20 million tons of additional LNG capacity is expected to come on stream in the next two years. Gas markets could be tighter should the next winter be colder than usual and the Chinese economy enters higher gears.

Unfortunately, in the last three years, progress towards universal access to energy has been hampered. 2.6 billion people continue to rely on dung and charcoal for cooking, and 800 million do not have access to electricity.

Ladies and gentlemen,

In the longer term, the world will need more energy, underpinned by population and urbanisation growth - 1.8 billion additional people will live on this planet by 2050 and 2.3 billion more in urban cities; a doubling of the size of the global economy; and the quest for higher living standards.

The GECF expects energy demand to increase by 22% by 2050, despite significant energy efficiency improvements.

All energy sources and technologies will be required to meet the growing energy needs while improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

There is a great diversity of future energy pathways. They are nationally determined and based on the circumstances and priorities of each country, its financial and technological capabilities, and people’s choices.

There is no one-size-fits-all model.

Natural gas, along with renewables, is expected to play an even more pivotal role in the future.

Its use in replacing wood and dung for cooking and heating mitigates indoor air pollution and deforestation.

In many countries in Africa and Asia, switching from coal to gas is the least costly pathway to improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Natural gas is a partner of variable and intermittent renewables, providing backup and stability to power grids.

Last but not least, it is a key ingredient in the production of petrochemicals and fertilisers.

By 2050, the demand for natural gas is expected to increase by 36%. Its share in the global energy mix will rise from 23% today to 26% in 2050, the highest of all hydrocarbons.

Even under the accelerated decarbonisation scenario, the demand for natural gas will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace.

Ladies and gentlemen,

The world needs more energy, but it also requires clean air and less greenhouse gas emissions.

To this end, it is crucial to rapidly scale up existing cleaner energy sources and technologies, such as wind and solar, gas flaring and methane emissions reduction, coal-to-gas switching, carbon capture, utilisation and storage, low-carbon hydrogen, and modern biomass.

Policy support, fiscal and monetary incentives, and appropriate market design are all required. Cooperation among government-industry-academia will facilitate the deployment and scale up of these cleaner technologies. Equally important is technology transfer to developing countries, as stipulated by the UNFCCC.

The GECF member countries decided to expand their cooperation to technology by establishing the Gas Research Institute, and I had the honour to sign its headquarters agreement few weeks ago in Algiers.

Ladies and gentlemen,

I wish to end with some comments on investment.

As you are aware, the natural gas industry is capital intensive, with long lead times and payback periods. It warrants policy and regulation stability. It requires fair value for natural gas in order to ensure sufficient investments through the entire gas value-chain. It also requires equitable risk-sharing among all gas market stakeholders to sustain the security of demand as well as the security of supply.

By 2050, the cumulative upstream and midstream investment required to satisfy global gas demand will reach a hefty US$ 10.5 trillion. In an industry characterised by a production natural decline rate of 4-5% per annum, a lack of investment can only lead to higher prices and chaotic energy transitions. This penalises the poorest and the developing world. It risks creating a backlash against the very policies that stifle investment. It also jeopardises the attainment of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the very battle for mitigating and adapting to climate change.

This is all the more important in Africa, a continent where 900 million people still lack access to clean cooking fuels and 600 million to reliable electricity. Africa’s population is set to rise from 1.4 to 2.5 billion in 2050. A doubling of the continent’s average GDP per capita by 2050, a rather modest objective, would increase energy demand by around 150%.

It is thus clear that there is no alternative to Africa but to use its natural resources to alleviate poverty and pursue socio-economic development. The right of Africa to develop its vast natural resources shall thus be preserved, and its access to finance and technology shall be facilitated.

In this connection, I am proud that since I assumed office, Mozambique joined the GECF – Mozambique started exporting LNG in November of last year and is expected to become the fifth largest LNG exporter in 2040 – and Mauritania has officially applied for membership – Mauritania will start exporting LNG by the end of this year.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Going back to the theme of this Symposium, and to sum it up in one sentence, I would say that natural gas will play a pivotal role in sustainable development for decades to come.

Once again, thank you for your kind invitation and for your attention.