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GECF shares insights from its Global Gas Model and Accelerated Energy Transition Scenario in Cairo workshop

 Doha, Qatar

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) on Monday held a workshop showcasing the breadth of its multi-energy muti-sectors forecasting model, the Global Gas Model. The event in Cairo came a day prior to the 24th GECF Ministerial Meeting and was attended by several energy ministers and senior officials from its member countries.

Welcoming the dignitaries and participants to the event, HE Eng. Tarek El Molla, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Arab Republic of Egypt, said: “Today’s workshop tackles one of the most critical topics addressed worldwide: the role of natural gas as a reliable energy source and how it supports a just energy transition process.”

Among the Ministers in attendance were HE Gabriel M. Obiang Lima, Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons, Republic of Equatorial Guinea, HE The Hon. Stuart Young, Minister of Energy and Energy Industries, Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, and HE Carlos Zacarias, Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Republic of Mozambique. Heads of delegation to the 24th GECF Ministerial Meeting from Bolivia, Mauritania, and Venezuela were also present on the occasion. 

In his opening remarks, HE Eng. Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General of the GECF, said: “The main takeaway from today is that natural gas is set to play a pivotal role as an enabler of  the energy transition.”

These remarks find their basis in the numbers generated by the GGM, which shows that the in the reference case, the use of natural gas will increase by an annual average growth rate of 1.1%, from about 4,000 billion cubic metres (bcm) last year to around 5,500 bcm by 2050, underpinned by population growth, economic expansion, improved living standards, and nations’ quest for cleaner energies, with notably coal-to-gas switching explained Dr Hussein Moghaddam, Senior Energy Forecast Analyst at the GECF. 

Presenting the initial results of the Energy Sustainability Scenario (ESS), Dr Moghaddam said: “In the ESS, we seek a balance between the three pillars of energy security, affordability, and sustainability to demonstrate that natural gas is a key lever to realising the UN Sustainable Development Goals.” 

Meanwhile, the numbers generated under the AETS present another promising picture for natural gas. The Scenario sees natural gas playing an instrumental in power generation by backing up renewables and producing energy carriers such as hydrogen. This power generation capacity will also be pronounced in increased solar and wind generation by providing flexibility and back up, highlighted Eng. Mustafa Amer, Research Assistant at the GECF. 

According to him, the GECF’s AETS also features carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) as an important decarbonisation pillar that reduces emissions by 4.8 GtCO2 by 2050.  

“Together, natural gas and renewables may make up 57% of the world’s energy mix, boasting the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2050, when compared to 2020 levels,” added Mr Amer.  

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GECF shares insights from its Global Gas Model and Accelerated Energy Transition Scenario in Cairo workshop  Doha, Qatar
  1. Pic1 MM 2022 Workshop
  2. Pic2 MM 2022  Workshop
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